将 Parametric insurance 与投资创业公司做对比。Parametric insurance 根据已发生的客观事件（如地震等级）进行理赔，而创业公司投资的是未来，未来不可预测，创业公司能否融到钱也不可预测。
"Investing in startups isn't about what has happened. Investing in startups is about what will happen. Investors are trying to find small companies that will become multibillion dollar ones. They use past performance as an indication of the quality of the founders and the idea, but no metric is a perfect predictor of the future."